The Impact of AI

  The subtitle to Masakazu Kobayashi’s Impact of AI is, “Is Artificial Intelligence an Enemy of the Human Race.?” And his answer to this question is “no.” He depicts how PC and internet technologies are comparable to AI and the next generation of robots, and how AI and the next generation of robots will  revolutionize all industries.

 As Mr. Kobayashi lays out, the history of AI has been a hard road. Minsky, an MIT professor attested to the limits of neural networks in the 50s, and after a boom during the 1st and 2nd generations, the industry underwent a setback. During the second boom in the 80s, I was involved in a government development project, so I understand the severity of this is.

　

  He says that after 2006, thanks to deep learning, there was a revolution in the robotics industry, resulting in large advances in image recognition and natural language processing. It would seem that finally after 10 years the next boom is finally taking off in earnest.

  The iPhone’s siri application and IT recommendation services are also AI, but what is more promising than those services are innovations like self-driving vehicles, drones, and robots. And Mr. Kobayashi also focuses his attention on these aspects.

  Especially in the United States, robotics development projects are proceeding one after another at places like MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Stanford. And with the call from DARPA (United States Advanced Research Projects Agency) there has been an increase in development projects. It is an industry-government collaboration.

  On the other hand, IT companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon etc. are currently leading the way in AI ​​and robotics. They say that they are trying to collect big data through the net and robotics.

　

  After being created by DARPA, the internet was further developed at universities, and then made into a service and commercialized by a group of industries on the west coast, and from there the internet spread around the world. Thus the diffusion of AI and robotics proceeded from the military, to the universities, to west coast industries.

  And that might mean that the situation has reached a place where even if the Japanese government and universities rush they will not be able to catch up. Can the Japanese government and universities really compete with such little funds, when companies continue to invest hundreds or  hundreds of billions of yen?

  In this regard, this book brings up Germany's "Industry 4.0", where production and logistic sites are becoming more internet based, while the national policy is managed by AI, supporting the fear that the US monopoly on the IT revolution will hijack Germany’s treasured manufacturing industry. Japan’s strategy is called into question.

  One interesting point here, is that the direction of development is different in Japan and the US. This is how Mr. Kobayashi sees it:

Japan: Single function robot operated by humans vs USA: A general purpose robot that moves autonomously with AI.

  In this context, Kobayashi points out that, the majority of the engineers employed as robotics engineers specialized in mechanical engineering and control systems at university. In other words, subjects that are unrelated to AI. Manufacturing, AI, and IT are dealt with separately. This is not good.

  What is even more interesting, is that Japan is indecisive when it comes to answering the question  of “what to make.”

At one time, America was indifferent towards humanoid robots like Assimo. And then, in regards to the development of the humanoid robot Schaft, the Japanese government decided that “there was no market for humanoid robots” and the project could not secure the necessary funds. Then, to the shock of all those involved in the development, Schaft was bought by Google. Presently humanoid robots occupies the center of the American industry.

That is where we’re at.

  In this regard, Masahiko Inami emphasises that “In order to ensure that robots function correctly in the environments in which they will be used, it is important to find out how people want to use their robots.” Along with the development of AI, the desired features of robots are evolving. Despite this, Japan does not seem to be pursuing these issues.

　AI and robots will steal jobs from humans. The middle income strata of jobs, (office workers etc.), will be stolen, and the more atypical manual labour jobs will be stolen too. Robots will also be put to use in jobs which are considered higher ranking jobs such as medical research and business consulting.

　

  But it doesn’t end there. Not only will AI usurp the throne in the world of shogi and go. A professor at UC Santa Cruz developed a program called “Emmy” which composed an opera which surpasses professional composers, so even creative jobs will become the domain of AI.

  In conclusion, Mr Kobayashi asks the question, machines have already exceed humans when it comes to steam locomotives, automobiles, heavy machinery, computer, strength, speed, and computing power, but will we also forfeit “intelligence” which is our last trump card.

　And he answers himself. Humans will probably make that decision. Humans have become unable to manage the many problems that we’re confronted with, such as global warming, air pollution, and the processing of nuclear waste. For this reason, he thinks that we need computers and robots equipped with knowledge that surpassses our own.

  He goes on to explain, intelligence is not the final trump card left to man. We possess something that exceeds that. After having created something that exceeds ourselves, we have the foresight and broad mindedness to accept it.

  From the vague anxiety concerning AI and robots, pessimism regarding the future is in the air. What we need to combat this is not blind optimism, but a creative attitude that will subjugate the future