2020年12月29日火曜日

“The Internet and Freedom for Us” Revisited

 ■“The Internet and Freedom for Us” Revisited

I wrote a book called “The Internet and Freedom for Us” around 1996.

At the time, the old order was firmly in place. A triangular hierarchy existed in each of the fields of government, major corporations, mass media, and universities.

Japan still had the strength to be considered one of the 3 powers, along with the United States and Europe. National borders were also unyielding.

I tried to capture the internet, which appeared as something that could upend this situation, in its proper scale.

It appeared as a dazzling light.

Individuals gain power. Expressions and comments can be made freely, forming mobile TV stations for a hundred million people. Businesses would also flourish. The order of everything would be turned on its head. It is punk.

I want “myself” to be free.

However, it is too destructive. It failed to measure the distance between countries. For this reason, there were strong opinions seeking for control of the internet, although there were opinions in support of the internet. With that said, it is futile to oppose the inevitability of technology.

I want the “internet” to be free

I wrote about these 2 points

20 years later, there are both things I was able to anticipate and things I could not anticipate.

Matters (generally) progressed as I imagined.

In ’99, i-mode and broadband appeared, giving individuals and organizations more power through mobile devices and videos. The iPhone was introduced in 2008 and social networking services became popular, giving more power.

Negroponte from MIT advocated from the “union of bits and atoms,” and advancement to atoms (real space) and bits (virtual space) had been completed.

Business became digital-driven.

3/4 of music sales in the United States have become streaming, and IT companies (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alibaba, and Google) make up the top 5 for aggregate market value. Banks have transitioned to financial technology, and the digital world is the key battlefield for military affairs.

Individuals have been given power, mass media has become relative, and hierarchies have collapsed.

The Mubarak regime was toppled by the united masses, Mr. Trump is opposing the mass media on Twitter, China controls its internet, and the IS recruits young foreigners on the internet.

GAFA has obtained global power that surpasses that of an ordinary nation.

The status of modern nations and companies has become relative.

The firewall in China is not a special case, as freedom on the internet is starting to become regulated.

The EU seeks to tax GAFA and has brought in GDPR (protection of personal information) and the link tax (copyrights).

Regarding piracy, Japan is troubled by how to secure freedom regarding both the protection of intellectual property and secrecy of communication.

I had generally envisioned matters to this point.

Although things were hazy, well-informed people at the time felt that the internet was a wave with this much ability to destroy.

There were 2 points that I could not envision.

First is that the evolution of technology would accelerate

When I participated in the MIT Media Lab in ’98, it felt as if AI and IoT were on the verge of being introduced, but the steps of popularizing the internet and smartization were needed before dissemination, requiring 20 years.

However, the transition from the internet to AI/IoT was rapid once true dissemination became viable

There is time until the singularity, which will divide the history of humankind into before and after the singularity, but it is surprising that big data would become a theme with utmost importance and data-driven society would be achieved with such speed.

As the land and natural resources are the driving force for agricultural and industrial society, it was believed that this would transition to “knowledge” for information society.

This would transition to “data” for the fourth industrial revolution and Society 5.0. There would be a struggle for these resources

Blockchain is a product of IT, but it will inevitably absorb its producer.

As ultra-dispersion advances, there is a possibility that all service organizations that stand between people, including shops, banks, schools, and nations, may lose their power. I feel a similar force of destruction as I did regarding the internet around ‘98.

I had not imagined the introduction of technology like this

The other is the significance of the impact that the internet has had on capitalism

The internet revitalizes industry and enhances capitalism.

I had the optimistic view that the two ideologies, together with democracy, that have been nurtured in the modern age could be matured.

However, there is a possibility that the internet will dispel “capitalism.”

This is not because the internet will widen disparities and rebel against the uniform pressure of democracy

The internet reduces the cost of goods and services, offers many services for free, improves convenience for people, and enriches life. The sharing economy enriches lifestyles even more. Economic activity that cannot be counted monetarily as production or supply is increasing.

There is a chance that GDP will decline rather than simply stagnate. However, utility for users increases satisfaction.

The economy cannot be portrayed using GDP, which is calculated using producer surplus, and consumer surplus has become an important index. There can be happiness without economic growth.

Capitalism is facing a need for revision.

It is still not clear where it is headed, but I believe that it is unlikely for capitalism to die, as I envision the birth of a new type of capitalism, in which digital information is the source for value creation.

I will return to the topic at hand.

Has the internet made us free?

“I” have become quite free. However, others have absorbed my data, I am being monitored by IoT, and as I gain more freedom for transmission, I become managed more. Will it reach a happy equilibrium at some point?

While the “internet” advances continuously and increases in flexibility, as AI and blockchain have also come on board, it is no longer a free paradise, as nations and regions have strengthened their control over it.

As capitalism and democracy loosen, and the pressure for nationalism intensifies, the internet cannot be uninvolved.

The internet is still in its dawn, as it has only been disseminated for roughly 20 years.

We cannot say that it has matured.

Moreover, humankind, the users of the internet, has just entered digital society and has yet to establish its manners.

Perhaps a conclusion may just come insight once the generation has completely shifted after another 20 or so years.


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