2018年12月25日火曜日

We need to dream of a super smart society


We are currently noticing articles in the media reporting that Japan has had a late start in the AI development race. American companies such as IBM, Google, and Apple are the current industry leaders for AI development, and while the Japanese government has appealed to advance development with the Artificial Intelligence Technology Strategy Council, there remains a concern that we have missed the boat.

In Japan, the AI industry died down after the original boom in the 80’s. While the AI faction was lively during my time at the MIT Media Lab in the late 90’s, Japanese companies had already begun to lose interest.

Though Deep Learning has regained popularity in recent years, it is too late for Japan to put its taxes into universities for research because American companies overseas are already investing trillions of JPY into the race. Japan’s late start was not caused by the lack of talented personnel in universities, but because of company investments.

Our one chance to succeed is not via the development side of things, but the use side. Take a look at how female high school students used IT/mobile phone technology to create the cultures of emojis and selfies, or how the video-game industry was born by using American technology.

I believe that we should take the lead and adopt new technologies to give birth to new industries and cultures with them, such as with pop culture and our other fields of expertise, or with welfare, nursing, and disaster prevention, areas in which Japan should exist as a global challenge forerunner.

The government should also guide us in the proactive use of AI. They should show a high level of commitment to its use, such as by giving an Assistant Vice Minister post to an AI.

However, while it is important to consider AI in terms of investment and sales, this is missing the big picture.

We are currently starting to refer to AI and IoT as Industry 4.0. 1.0 is light industry, 2.0 is heavy industry, and 3.0 is information industry.

However, we must ask ourselves: is this truly an industrial revolution? Of course, the industries will be the first to change, but is the effect had on culture and society not more significant?

Even looking back to IT, which is mostly linked to Industry 3.0, was that truly an industrial revolution for us? Was it not more of a cultural revolution? I believe that rather than the growth of the IT industry and adoption of IT by businesses, the majority of the population beginning to carry and transmit information to one another was a much larger change for us.

If the 18th century industrial revolution was a once-in-300-years change, then I believe that the information revolution brought on by IT is a once-in-1000-years change of expression. The AI/IT revolution will be an entirely new frontier for us, a once-in-10000-year revolution. I believe that by taking something of such grand scale and simply summing it up as “Industry 4.0,” the strategies that we for it will be too small to fit.

This is why the Japanese government has introduced their vision of a super smart society known as Society 5.0 to stand alongside Industry 4.0. Each society was a revolution, with 1.0’s being hunting and gathering, 2.0’s being agricultural, 3.0’s being industrial, 4.0’s being information, and 5.0’s being civilization. This is a better fit for AI and IoT’s massive scale.

This time, the government’s White Paper on Information and Communications focused on IT’s consumer surplus. The value of IT cannot be measured as GDP. Even if the industry does not have huge sales, it has a huge effect on the money, time, and physiological use of its users. We must ask ourselves how we perceive an industry in terms of society, culture, and civilization, not just monetary value.

What impact will AI have on investment and sales, and how will further reliance on AI change civilization? I would like an index to measure this with so that countermeasures can be formed. However, we are still on the tip of the iceberg.

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