2020年7月30日木曜日

Recommendations for an ultra-free society 2: letting the grasshopper manage the AI ants

■Recommendations for an ultra-free society 2: letting the grasshopper manage the AI ants
 I’ve heard that SoftBank is using AI to evaluate students’ application forms. The day when AI takes over the positions of job interviewers seems near too. AI doesn’t get tired, is fair, and doesn’t have variations in its decisions.
 There is specialized as well as general AI. AI research in the 1970s and 80s focused on specialized AI and the development of expert systems. AI has recently experienced a boom due to deep learning, but all existing AI is this specialized form. Because of this, the situation seems like it will be that when humans’ jobs can be replaced with AI, it will be because those jobs are clearly the domain of a specialist.
 The materialization of general AI is something that still lies in the future. When this happens, all-purpose people will be in a strong position. People who can do anything. Generalists. People who can single-handedly handle planning, coordination, management, and implementation. People who can change the content of their work in response to changes in the environment. “Maids” might be in an unexpectedly strong position - they can handle childcare, cleaning, laundry, cooking, and any other tasks.
 I was originally a bureaucrat. Japanese bureaucrats are the epitome of generalists. Their assignment changes every one or two years, and the instant it changes, they have to thoroughly study the systems, industry affairs, and technologies in the field they’re now responsible for, and play the role of a specialist even if it’s only been a month. They may have to move to a different region or be transferred overseas. It’s a job where the ability to handle change is a prerequisite. This will also be a strong model in the era of AI.
 General AI will materialize sooner or later. There is a theory that the singularity, when AI exceeds the abilities of human beings, will come in 2045, and there is also a forecast that general AI will materialize in 2030. I cannot predict this, but I do anticipate seeing this moment during my lifetime. If general AI appears on the scene, many of the jobs held by human beings today will be taken away.
 The ultra-free society is arriving. Of course, even if people are now free, they will still do work to pass their free time. Even if they aren’t remunerated for their work, they will continue doing things that contribute to production. A lot of people will probably start doing things that they see as work, but that people around them will see as play.
 Then of course, true play will start to carry weight. Entertainment, sports, love, and dining. Artistic and creative activities. Study and learning will be like this too. We will start to put 90% of our energy into these things that weren’t previously jobs or the austerities we subjected ourselves to for a reward.
 The Japanese government is advocating “reforms in the way people work”. Allowing flexible ways of working is a “smart” arrangement that allows time or skills to be shared in a modular way. But if we’re focusing on the ultra-free society created by AI, more than reforming the way we work, we need to reform the way we play. How can we play seriously? How can we pass our free time creatively?
 The role of the ants who work and work and work to pass the winter can be played by AI. We must become the grasshoppers who devote ourselves to the arts, and who put the AI ants to work.
 This when I was in fourth grade. At the end of “The Ant and the Grasshopper” in our Japanese-language textbooks, the question was posed: “Why did this happen to the grasshopper?” The two options were: “1. Because there was no more food” and “2. Because it did nothing but play”. We discussed this question as a class.
 The class was divided right in half (I belonged to the second group), and it became an intense back-and-forth of opinions that gradually heated up and finally turned into a fistfight. The female teacher left the situation alone and said one thing at the end of the lesson: “Both answers are right.” What? Say that earlier on!
 That was almost half a century ago. Now that I think back on it, there weren’t enough options. “3. Because it didn’t have the ability to manage the ants” - that’s the correct answer.

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