A debate on the future

 I was employed as director of the Japan branch of the international society of Research and Information on Public and Co-operative Economy, which is based on the Keio University Hiyoshi Campus. The main office is in Belgium. The theme is “ICT (Information and Communications Technology) in 2045.”

Many people have imagined what the future of our information society will look like. Many wild fancies have emerged about the High-Level Information Age, New Media Initiatives, Multimedia, Gigabit Societies, etc. Many of these things actually became reality, and in some cases reality has surpassed expectations.

Perhaps because of this, the energy put forth into surveying possibilities for the future seems to have been lost. As media has entered a tempestuous period, it is now the responsibility of academia to once again imagine possible futures.

As such, we gathered engineers, designers, and bureaucrats to a debate. I was the chairperson.

The reason for setting the goal 30 years in the future is that I thought 30 years ago was an important time. Media at the time consisted of telephone and television. A telephone network that had taken 100 years of preparation was complete, and the analog television networks covered the entire country. Then, in the mid-eighties, communications were deregulated and broadcast and satellite channels began to increase.

At the time there were four items on the policy agenda. Cheap, fast, beautiful, and profitable. Would telephone charges become cheaper? Would communication lines become faster? Would broadcast images become more beautiful? Would the media companies profit? The need for all of the items on this agenda has been lost.

Thirty years later, analog has come to an end. We now have PC, mobile, internet, and content throughout the world. The next stage involves multi-screen technology, the cloud, and social media. Once again, things are in disorder.

So then, let’s imagine the world 30 years from now. How will the social economy change? What will become of Japan? What role will IT play? Will its importance increase or diminish? These are the questions that I asked.

As can be expected, the conference ended without any concrete solutions. Listening to everyone’s opinions we could only confirm that media is in a state of chaos.

As children, we imagined a world of video phones and flying cars. Thirty years ago, we imagined a world where one could communicate at any time to anyone anywhere.

Now, the wants of the user have diversified, and we have the problems of cyber wars and flame wars. As technology improves we get to the point where machines can take the place of humans. The future is neither white nor black nor grey. It is still mottled.

Since the goal of the session was to share this situation, I believe that the goal was accomplished.